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Mara Sugar vs MCF — Super League 2018

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
MCF
MCF
1/29/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mara Sugar54%
×Draw26%
MCF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
1.56
MCF
0.84

Mara Sugar creates 86% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 90 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
1.91
MCF
0.88

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.81
MCF
1.22

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
MCF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

MCF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
80%
Mara Sugar or MCF
74%
Draw or MCF
46%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
29%
MCF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
79%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
46%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
21%
MCF 1+ goals
57%
MCF 2+ goals
21%
MCF 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
73%
MCF (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

MCF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + MCF defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

MCF attack 0.88 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
54%
level
26%
MCF scores more
20%

Mara Sugar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mara Sugar 1 – 0 MCF

Mara Sugar beat MCF 1-0 in Super League on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.