MCF 2–0 Kibera Black Stars: Result & Stats

MCF

FT

2 – 0

Kibera Black Stars

3/9/2025

Super League · Round 22Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

MCF46%

×Draw28%

Kibera Black Stars26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MCFExpected goals in this matchKibera Black Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.90

MCF

1.29

Kibera Black Stars

0.90

MCF creates 43% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 110 away

1.26

creates per match

0.95

0.85

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

MCF

1.26

Kibera Black Stars

0.95

allows per match

MCF

0.85

Kibera Black Stars

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MCF+0.00on par

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Kibera Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

MCF or draw

74%

MCF or Kibera Black Stars

72%

Draw or Kibera Black Stars

54%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+

21%

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals

72%

MCF 2+ goals

37%

MCF 3+ goals

14%

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

59%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

23%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)

64%

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

MCF scores more

46%

level

28%

Kibera Black Stars scores more

26%

MCF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff