Kibera Black Stars 3–1 MCF: Result & Stats

Kibera Black Stars

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

MCF

11/24/2024

Super League · Round 10Hope Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Kibera Black Stars47%

×Draw29%

MCF24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kibera Black StarsExpected goals in this matchMCF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.81

Kibera Black Stars

1.27

MCF

0.81

Kibera Black Stars creates 57% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 90 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

0.75

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars

1.33

MCF

0.88

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars

0.75

MCF

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

MCF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

MCF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw

76%

Kibera Black Stars or MCF

71%

Draw or MCF

53%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

22%

MCF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

72%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

36%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

14%

MCF 1+ goals

56%

MCF 2+ goals

19%

MCF 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

67%

MCF (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

MCF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + MCF defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

MCF attack 0.88 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more

47%

level

29%

MCF scores more

24%

Kibera Black Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff