MC Oran 1–0 CS Constantine: Result & Stats

MC Oran

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CS Constantine

11/2/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Olympique d'Oran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

MC Oran46%

×Draw29%

CS Constantine25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MC OranExpected goals in this matchCS Constantine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.85

MC Oran

1.26

CS Constantine

0.85

MC Oran creates 48% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 124 away

1.40

creates per match

0.96

0.75

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

MC Oran

1.40

CS Constantine

0.96

allows per match

MC Oran

0.75

CS Constantine

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par

CS Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

CS Constantine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw

75%

MC Oran or CS Constantine

71%

Draw or CS Constantine

54%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+

21%

CS Constantine wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals

72%

MC Oran 2+ goals

36%

MC Oran 3+ goals

13%

CS Constantine 1+ goals

57%

CS Constantine 2+ goals

21%

CS Constantine 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)

65%

CS Constantine (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

CS Constantine away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + CS Constantine defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.26

CS Constantine attack 0.96 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

MC Oran scores more

46%

level

29%

CS Constantine scores more

25%

MC Oran at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff