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CS Constantine vs MC Oran — Ligue 1 2018

CS Constantine
CS Constantine
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
MC Oran
MC Oran
6/7/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade Hamam Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

CS Constantine53%
×Draw27%
MC Oran20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Constantine
1.44
MC Oran
0.76

CS Constantine creates 89% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 122 away

creates per match

CS Constantine
1.50
MC Oran
0.78

allows per match

CS Constantine
0.74
MC Oran
1.38

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par
MC Oran+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

MC Oran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw
80%
CS Constantine or MC Oran
73%
Draw or MC Oran
47%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+
27%
MC Oran wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals
76%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
42%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
18%
MC Oran 1+ goals
53%
MC Oran 2+ goals
18%
MC Oran 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)
73%
MC Oran (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

MC Oran away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + MC Oran defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

MC Oran attack 0.78 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CS Constantine scores more
53%
level
27%
MC Oran scores more
20%

CS Constantine at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: CS Constantine 1–1 MC Oran

CS Constantine and MC Oran drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Hamam Ammar in Khenchela.