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Mbour Petite Côte vs Jaraaf — Ligue 1 2019

Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
FT
1 – 0
Jaraaf
Jaraaf
6/3/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Lamine Guèye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mbour Petite Côte27%
×Draw32%
Jaraaf41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbour Petite Côte
0.80
Jaraaf
1.06

Jaraaf creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 89 away

creates per match

Mbour Petite Côte
0.94
Jaraaf
0.94

allows per match

Mbour Petite Côte
1.19
Jaraaf
0.67

finishing

Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par
Jaraaf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbour Petite Côte ↓

Jaraaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mbour Petite Côte or draw
59%
Mbour Petite Côte or Jaraaf
68%
Draw or Jaraaf
73%

Winning margin

Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
9%
Jaraaf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
55%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
19%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
5%
Jaraaf 1+ goals
65%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
29%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
40%
Jaraaf (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbour Petite Côte at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Jaraaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.94 + Jaraaf defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Jaraaf attack 0.94 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mbour Petite Côte scores more
27%
level
32%
Jaraaf scores more
41%

Jaraaf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbour Petite Côte vs Jaraaf

Mbour Petite Côte beat Jaraaf 1-0 in Ligue 1 on June 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Lamine Guèye in Kaolack.