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Jaraaf vs Mbour Petite Côte — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
3/5/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade Iba-Mar-Diop

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Jaraaf51%
×Draw32%
Mbour Petite Côte17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
1.13
Mbour Petite Côte
0.52

Jaraaf creates 117% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 33 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
Mbour Petite Côte
0.48

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
Mbour Petite Côte
1.30

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

Mbour Petite Côte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
83%
Jaraaf or Mbour Petite Côte
68%
Draw or Mbour Petite Côte
49%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
22%
Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
68%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
31%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
11%
Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
41%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
10%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
75%
Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Mbour Petite Côte away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.48 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jaraaf scores more
51%
level
32%
Mbour Petite Côte scores more
17%

Jaraaf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaraaf vs Mbour Petite Côte

Jaraaf beat Mbour Petite Côte 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Iba-Mar-Diop in Dakar.