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Mbour Petite Côte vs Diambars — Ligue 1 2019

Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
FT
1 – 2
Diambars
Diambars
1/9/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Complexe Sportif Bruno Metsu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mbour Petite Côte35%
×Draw29%
Diambars37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbour Petite Côte
1.09
Diambars
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mbour Petite Côte
0.94
Diambars
1.07

allows per match

Mbour Petite Côte
1.19
Diambars
1.25

finishing

Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par
Diambars+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbour Petite Côte ↓

Diambars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mbour Petite Côte or draw
63%
Mbour Petite Côte or Diambars
71%
Draw or Diambars
65%

Winning margin

Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
14%
Diambars wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
66%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
30%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
10%
Diambars 1+ goals
68%
Diambars 2+ goals
31%
Diambars 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
49%
Diambars (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbour Petite Côte at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Diambars away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.94 + Diambars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Diambars attack 1.07 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mbour Petite Côte scores more
35%
level
29%
Diambars scores more
37%

Diambars at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Diambars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbour Petite Côte vs Diambars

Diambars beat Mbour Petite Côte 2-1 in Ligue 1 on January 9, 2021.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Bruno Metsu in Mbour.