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Diambars vs Mbour Petite Côte — Ligue 1 2019

Diambars
Diambars
FT
1 – 0
Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
5/8/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Fodé Wade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Diambars52%
×Draw30%
Mbour Petite Côte18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diambars
1.27
Mbour Petite Côte
0.63

Diambars creates 102% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 33 away

creates per match

Diambars
1.24
Mbour Petite Côte
0.48

allows per match

Diambars
0.78
Mbour Petite Côte
1.30

finishing

Diambars+0.00on par
Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diambars ↓

Mbour Petite Côte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Diambars or draw
82%
Diambars or Mbour Petite Côte
70%
Draw or Mbour Petite Côte
48%

Winning margin

Diambars wins by 2+
24%
Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Diambars 1+ goals
72%
Diambars 2+ goals
36%
Diambars 3+ goals
14%
Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
47%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
13%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Diambars (draw refunded)
74%
Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diambars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 58 matches

Mbour Petite Côte away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diambars attack 1.24 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.48 + Diambars defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Diambars scores more
52%
level
30%
Mbour Petite Côte scores more
18%

Diambars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Diambars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Diambars 1–0 Mbour Petite Côte

Diambars beat Mbour Petite Côte 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Fodé Wade in Saly.