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Mbeya Kwanza vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mbeya Kwanza
Mbeya Kwanza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
5/17/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 26Majimaji Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mbeya Kwanza37%
×Draw31%
Geita Gold32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya Kwanza
1.04
Geita Gold
0.94

Mbeya Kwanza creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mbeya Kwanza
0.69
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Mbeya Kwanza
1.06
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Mbeya Kwanza+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya Kwanza ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mbeya Kwanza or draw
68%
Mbeya Kwanza or Geita Gold
69%
Draw or Geita Gold
63%

Winning margin

Mbeya Kwanza wins by 2+
15%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mbeya Kwanza 1+ goals
65%
Mbeya Kwanza 2+ goals
28%
Mbeya Kwanza 3+ goals
9%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
61%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
24%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mbeya Kwanza (draw refunded)
54%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya Kwanza at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya Kwanza attack 0.69 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Mbeya Kwanza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mbeya Kwanza scores more
37%
level
31%
Geita Gold scores more
32%

Mbeya Kwanza at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mbeya Kwanza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbeya Kwanza vs Geita Gold

Geita Gold beat Mbeya Kwanza 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 17, 2022.

The match was played at Majimaji Stadium in Songea.