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Geita Gold vs Mbeya Kwanza — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Geita Gold
Geita Gold
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mbeya Kwanza
Mbeya Kwanza
12/27/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 11Nyankumbu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Geita Gold49%
×Draw27%
Mbeya Kwanza24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geita Gold
1.40
Mbeya Kwanza
0.90

Geita Gold creates 56% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 17 away

creates per match

Geita Gold
1.09
Mbeya Kwanza
0.76

allows per match

Geita Gold
1.04
Mbeya Kwanza
1.71

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par
Mbeya Kwanza+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Mbeya Kwanza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw
76%
Geita Gold or Mbeya Kwanza
73%
Draw or Mbeya Kwanza
51%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+
24%
Mbeya Kwanza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals
75%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
41%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
17%
Mbeya Kwanza 1+ goals
59%
Mbeya Kwanza 2+ goals
23%
Mbeya Kwanza 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)
67%
Mbeya Kwanza (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Mbeya Kwanza away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Mbeya Kwanza defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mbeya Kwanza attack 0.76 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Geita Gold scores more
49%
level
27%
Mbeya Kwanza scores more
24%

Geita Gold at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Geita Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Geita Gold 1–1 Mbeya Kwanza

Geita Gold and Mbeya Kwanza drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 27, 2021.

The match was played at Nyankumbu Stadium in Geita.