Mbeya City 6–1 JKT Tanzania: Result & Stats

Mbeya City

FT

6 – 1

JKT Tanzania

P. Athanas 90+4'

J. Liuzio 88', 68'

R. Ngodya 50'

D. Mwasa 45+1'

K. Prosper 18'

D. Lyanga 7'

4/28/2021

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 25Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mbeya City42%

×Draw29%

JKT Tanzania29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbeya CityExpected goals in this matchJKT Tanzania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.96

Mbeya City

1.23

JKT Tanzania

0.96

Mbeya City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.15

creates per match

0.79

1.12

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Mbeya City

1.15

JKT Tanzania

0.79

allows per match

Mbeya City

1.12

JKT Tanzania

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

JKT Tanzania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw

71%

Mbeya City or JKT Tanzania

71%

Draw or JKT Tanzania

58%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+

19%

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals

71%

Mbeya City 2+ goals

35%

Mbeya City 3+ goals

13%

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals

62%

JKT Tanzania 2+ goals

25%

JKT Tanzania 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)

60%

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 1.15 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

JKT Tanzania attack 0.79 + Mbeya City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mbeya City scores more

42%

level

29%

JKT Tanzania scores more

29%

Mbeya City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Lyanga

18'

K. Prosper

45+1'

D. Mwasa

50'

R. Ngodya

68'

J. Liuzio

88'

J. Liuzio

90+4'

P. Athanas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff