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JKT Tanzania vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
FT
0 – 1
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
K. Prosper 69'
11/24/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 11Samora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

JKT Tanzania47%
×Draw28%
Mbeya City25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JKT Tanzania
1.31
Mbeya City
0.86

JKT Tanzania creates 52% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 29 away

creates per match

JKT Tanzania
0.86
Mbeya City
0.90

allows per match

JKT Tanzania
0.83
Mbeya City
1.76

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw
75%
JKT Tanzania or Mbeya City
72%
Draw or Mbeya City
53%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
22%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
73%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
38%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
14%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
58%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
21%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
66%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.86 + Mbeya City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mbeya City attack 0.90 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more
47%
level
28%
Mbeya City scores more
25%

JKT Tanzania at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
K. Prosper

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JKT Tanzania vs Mbeya City

Mbeya City beat JKT Tanzania 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 24, 2020.

Goals: K. Prosper (69').

The match was played at Samora Stadium in Iringa.