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Mbeya City vs Gwambina — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mbeya City
Mbeya City
FT
1 – 0
Gwambina
Gwambina
7/15/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 30Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mbeya City45%
×Draw28%
Gwambina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya City
1.29
Gwambina
0.94

Mbeya City creates 37% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mbeya City
1.06
Gwambina
0.94

allows per match

Mbeya City
0.94
Gwambina
1.53

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par
Gwambina+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Gwambina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw
73%
Mbeya City or Gwambina
72%
Draw or Gwambina
55%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+
20%
Gwambina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals
72%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
37%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
14%
Gwambina 1+ goals
61%
Gwambina 2+ goals
24%
Gwambina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)
62%
Gwambina (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

Gwambina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 1.06 + Gwambina defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gwambina attack 0.94 + Mbeya City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mbeya City scores more
45%
level
28%
Gwambina scores more
27%

Mbeya City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbeya City vs Gwambina

Mbeya City beat Gwambina 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on July 15, 2021.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.