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Gwambina vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Gwambina
Gwambina
FT
1 – 1
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
12/22/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 15Gwambina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwambina44%
×Draw32%
Mbeya City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwambina
1.08
Mbeya City
0.70

Gwambina creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

Gwambina
0.76
Mbeya City
0.75

allows per match

Gwambina
0.65
Mbeya City
1.40

finishing

Gwambina+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwambina ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Gwambina or draw
76%
Gwambina or Mbeya City
68%
Draw or Mbeya City
56%

Winning margin

Gwambina wins by 2+
18%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gwambina 1+ goals
66%
Gwambina 2+ goals
29%
Gwambina 3+ goals
10%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
50%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
16%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gwambina (draw refunded)
65%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwambina at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.40 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwambina attack 0.76 + Mbeya City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mbeya City attack 0.75 + Gwambina defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gwambina scores more
44%
level
32%
Mbeya City scores more
24%

Gwambina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gwambina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Gwambina 1–1 Mbeya City

Gwambina and Mbeya City drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 22, 2020.

The match was played at Gwambina Stadium in Misungwi.