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Mbeya City vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mbeya City
Mbeya City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
4/2/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 19Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mbeya City44%
×Draw29%
Geita Gold26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya City
1.23
Geita Gold
0.88

Mbeya City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mbeya City
1.06
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Mbeya City
0.94
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw
74%
Mbeya City or Geita Gold
71%
Draw or Geita Gold
56%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+
20%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals
71%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
35%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
13%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
59%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
22%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)
63%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 1.06 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Mbeya City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mbeya City scores more
44%
level
29%
Geita Gold scores more
26%

Mbeya City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbeya City vs Geita Gold

Geita Gold beat Mbeya City 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.