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Geita Gold vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Geita Gold
Geita Gold
FT
1 – 1
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
G. Mpole 57'
J. Liuzio 45'
10/23/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 4Nyankumbu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold44%
×Draw29%
Mbeya City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geita Gold
1.25
Mbeya City
0.90

Geita Gold creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

creates per match

Geita Gold
1.09
Mbeya City
0.75

allows per match

Geita Gold
1.04
Mbeya City
1.40

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw
73%
Geita Gold or Mbeya City
71%
Draw or Mbeya City
56%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+
20%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals
71%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
36%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
13%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
59%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
23%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)
62%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.40 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Mbeya City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mbeya City attack 0.75 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Geita Gold scores more
44%
level
29%
Mbeya City scores more
27%

Geita Gold at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Geita Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
J. Liuzio
57'
G. Mpole

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geita Gold vs Mbeya City

Geita Gold and Mbeya City drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 23, 2021.

Goals: J. Liuzio (45'), G. Mpole (57').

The match was played at Nyankumbu Stadium in Geita.