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Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mbeya City
Mbeya City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
J. Shemvuni 60'
A. Mwambalaswa 53'
12/22/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 17Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mbeya City46%
×Draw28%
Fountain Gate26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya City
1.32
Fountain Gate
0.93

Mbeya City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mbeya City
1.15
Fountain Gate
0.74

allows per match

Mbeya City
1.12
Fountain Gate
1.50

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par
Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Fountain Gate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw
74%
Mbeya City or Fountain Gate
72%
Draw or Fountain Gate
54%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+
21%
Fountain Gate wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals
73%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
38%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
15%
Fountain Gate 1+ goals
61%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
24%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)
63%
Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 1.15 + Fountain Gate defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fountain Gate attack 0.74 + Mbeya City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mbeya City scores more
46%
level
28%
Fountain Gate scores more
26%

Mbeya City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
A. Mwambalaswa
60'
J. Shemvuni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate

Mbeya City and Fountain Gate drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 22, 2022.

Goals: A. Mwambalaswa (53'), J. Shemvuni (60').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.