Fountain Gate vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Fountain Gate44%
Mbeya City30%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fountain Gate creates 26% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fountain Gate ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fountain Gate at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches
Mbeya City away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fountain Gate attack 1.09 + Mbeya City defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45
Mbeya City attack 0.89 + Fountain Gate defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Fountain Gate at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Fountain Gate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Young Africans
Simba
Azam
Singida Black Stars
Tabora United
JKT Tanzania
Pamba Jiji
Coastal Union
Dodoma Jiji
Namungo
MashujaaFountain Gate
Tanzania PrisonsMbeya City
Mtibwa Sugar
KMCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fountain Gate host Mbeya City on Thursday, 18 September 2025 at 11:00. The match is part of the Ligi kuu Bara 2025/2026 season.
Ligi kuu Bara: Fountain Gate 0–1 Mbeya City
Mbeya City beat Fountain Gate 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 18, 2025.
Goals: H. Kyombo (57' pen).
The match was played at Kwaraa Stadium.