Mbarara City 3–1 Kyetume: Result & Stats

Mbarara City

FT

3 – 1

Kyetume

2/27/2021

Premier League · Round 10Kakyeka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mbarara City53%

×Draw26%

Kyetume21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbarara CityExpected goals in this matchKyetume

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.81

Mbarara City

1.48

Kyetume

0.81

Mbarara City creates 83% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

0.81

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Mbarara City

1.08

Kyetume

0.81

allows per match

Mbarara City

0.81

Kyetume

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par

Kyetume+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

Kyetume →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw

79%

Mbarara City or Kyetume

74%

Draw or Kyetume

47%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+

27%

Kyetume wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals

77%

Mbarara City 2+ goals

43%

Mbarara City 3+ goals

19%

Kyetume 1+ goals

56%

Kyetume 2+ goals

19%

Kyetume 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)

72%

Kyetume (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Kyetume away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + Kyetume defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kyetume attack 0.81 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mbarara City scores more

53%

level

26%

Kyetume scores more

21%

Mbarara City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff