Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kyetume vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

Kyetume
Kyetume
FT
1 – 3
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
6/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Nakisunga Saaza Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kyetume45%
×Draw27%
Mbarara City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyetume
1.40
Mbarara City
1.04

Kyetume creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 86 away

creates per match

Kyetume
1.19
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

Kyetume
1.35
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

Kyetume+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyetume ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kyetume or draw
72%
Kyetume or Mbarara City
73%
Draw or Mbarara City
55%

Winning margin

Kyetume wins by 2+
22%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kyetume 1+ goals
75%
Kyetume 2+ goals
41%
Kyetume 3+ goals
17%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
65%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
28%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kyetume (draw refunded)
62%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyetume at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyetume attack 1.19 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Kyetume defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kyetume scores more
45%
level
27%
Mbarara City scores more
28%

Kyetume at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kyetume will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kyetume 1–3 Mbarara City

Mbarara City beat Kyetume 3-1 in Premier League on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at Nakisunga Saaza Ground in Mukono.