Mbarara City 1–1 Entebbe UPPC: Result & Stats

Mbarara City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Entebbe UPPC

12/3/2025

Premier League · Round 9Rwamwanja stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mbarara City35%

×Draw32%

Entebbe UPPC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbarara CityExpected goals in this matchEntebbe UPPC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.91

Mbarara City

0.94

Entebbe UPPC

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

1.08

creates per match

1.00

0.81

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Mbarara City

1.08

Entebbe UPPC

1.00

allows per match

Mbarara City

0.81

Entebbe UPPC

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par

Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

Entebbe UPPC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw

67%

Mbarara City or Entebbe UPPC

68%

Draw or Entebbe UPPC

65%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+

13%

Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals

61%

Mbarara City 2+ goals

24%

Mbarara City 3+ goals

7%

Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals

60%

Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals

23%

Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)

51%

Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

Entebbe UPPC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mbarara City scores more

35%

level

32%

Entebbe UPPC scores more

33%

Mbarara City at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff