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Entebbe UPPC vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

Entebbe UPPC
Entebbe UPPC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
2/17/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Gaddafi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Entebbe UPPC53%
×Draw29%
Mbarara City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Entebbe UPPC
1.30
Mbarara City
0.63

Entebbe UPPC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Entebbe UPPC
1.00
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

Entebbe UPPC
0.53
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Entebbe UPPC ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Entebbe UPPC or draw
82%
Entebbe UPPC or Mbarara City
71%
Draw or Mbarara City
47%

Winning margin

Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+
25%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals
73%
Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals
37%
Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals
14%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
47%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
13%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)
75%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Entebbe UPPC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Entebbe UPPC scores more
53%
level
29%
Mbarara City scores more
18%

Entebbe UPPC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Entebbe UPPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Entebbe UPPC 1–0 Mbarara City

Entebbe UPPC beat Mbarara City 1-0 in Premier League on February 17, 2026.

The match was played at Gaddafi Arena in Jinja.