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Mbarara City vs BUL — Premier League 2019

Mbarara City
Mbarara City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
BUL
BUL
10/17/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Rwamwanja stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mbarara City37%
×Draw30%
BUL33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbarara City
1.08
BUL
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 100 away

creates per match

Mbarara City
1.08
BUL
1.17

allows per match

Mbarara City
0.81
BUL
1.08

finishing

Mbarara City+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbarara City ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mbarara City or draw
67%
Mbarara City or BUL
70%
Draw or BUL
63%

Winning margin

Mbarara City wins by 2+
15%
BUL wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mbarara City 1+ goals
66%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
29%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
10%
BUL 1+ goals
63%
BUL 2+ goals
26%
BUL 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mbarara City (draw refunded)
53%
BUL (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbarara City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 85 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbarara City attack 1.08 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

BUL attack 1.17 + Mbarara City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mbarara City scores more
37%
level
30%
BUL scores more
33%

Mbarara City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbarara City 1–1 BUL

Mbarara City and BUL drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Rwamwanja stadium.