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BUL vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
10/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Lugazi FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

BUL55%
×Draw26%
Mbarara City19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.52
Mbarara City
0.77

BUL creates 97% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 86 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

BUL or draw
81%
BUL or Mbarara City
74%
Draw or Mbarara City
45%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
29%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
78%
BUL 2+ goals
45%
BUL 3+ goals
20%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
54%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
18%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
74%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

BUL scores more
55%
level
26%
Mbarara City scores more
19%

BUL at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BUL 0–2 Mbarara City

Mbarara City beat BUL 2-0 in Premier League on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Lugazi FC Stadium in Najjembe.