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Mbale Heroes vs Express — Premier League 2019

Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Express
Express
4/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Mbale Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mbale Heroes22%
×Draw28%
Express50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbale Heroes
0.80
Express
1.36

Express creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mbale Heroes
0.33
Express
0.93

allows per match

Mbale Heroes
1.80
Express
1.26

finishing

Mbale Heroes+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbale Heroes ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mbale Heroes or draw
50%
Mbale Heroes or Express
72%
Draw or Express
78%

Winning margin

Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
7%
Express wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
55%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
19%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
5%
Express 1+ goals
74%
Express 2+ goals
39%
Express 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
31%
Express (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbale Heroes at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Express away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbale Heroes attack 0.33 + Express defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.80

Express attack 0.93 + Mbale Heroes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mbale Heroes scores more
22%
level
28%
Express scores more
50%

Express at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbale Heroes vs Express

Express beat Mbale Heroes 1-0 in Premier League on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Mbale Municipal Stadium in Mbale.