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Express vs Mbale Heroes — Premier League 2019

Express
Express
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
9/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Hamz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Express68%
×Draw19%
Mbale Heroes13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
2.10
Mbale Heroes
0.77

Express creates 173% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 15 away

creates per match

Express
1.40
Mbale Heroes
0.53

allows per match

Express
1.00
Mbale Heroes
2.80

finishing

Express+0.00on par
Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Mbale Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Express or draw
87%
Express or Mbale Heroes
81%
Draw or Mbale Heroes
32%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
43%
Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
88%
Express 2+ goals
62%
Express 3+ goals
35%
Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
54%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
18%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
84%
Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.40 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + Express defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Express scores more
68%
level
19%
Mbale Heroes scores more
13%

Express at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Express 2–1 Mbale Heroes

Express beat Mbale Heroes 2-1 in Premier League on September 16, 2024.

The match was played at Hamz Stadium in Kampala.