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Mbale Heroes vs Bright Stars — Premier League 2019

Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bright Stars
Bright Stars
11/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Mbale Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mbale Heroes24%
×Draw28%
Bright Stars47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbale Heroes
0.87
Bright Stars
1.33

Bright Stars creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Mbale Heroes
0.33
Bright Stars
0.86

allows per match

Mbale Heroes
1.80
Bright Stars
1.41

finishing

Mbale Heroes+0.00on par
Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbale Heroes ↓

Bright Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mbale Heroes or draw
53%
Mbale Heroes or Bright Stars
72%
Draw or Bright Stars
76%

Winning margin

Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
8%
Bright Stars wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
58%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
22%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
6%
Bright Stars 1+ goals
74%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
38%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
34%
Bright Stars (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbale Heroes at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbale Heroes attack 0.33 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.87

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + Mbale Heroes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mbale Heroes scores more
24%
level
28%
Bright Stars scores more
47%

Bright Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bright Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbale Heroes 1–0 Bright Stars

Mbale Heroes beat Bright Stars 1-0 in Premier League on November 28, 2024.

The match was played at Mbale Municipal Stadium in Mbale.