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Bright Stars vs Mbale Heroes — Premier League 2019

Bright Stars
Bright Stars
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
5/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bright Stars66%
×Draw21%
Mbale Heroes13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bright Stars
1.97
Mbale Heroes
0.74

Bright Stars creates 166% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bright Stars
1.14
Mbale Heroes
0.53

allows per match

Bright Stars
0.95
Mbale Heroes
2.80

finishing

Bright Stars+0.00on par
Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bright Stars ↓

Mbale Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bright Stars or draw
87%
Bright Stars or Mbale Heroes
79%
Draw or Mbale Heroes
34%

Winning margin

Bright Stars wins by 2+
41%
Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bright Stars 1+ goals
86%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
58%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
31%
Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
52%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
17%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bright Stars (draw refunded)
83%
Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bright Stars at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bright Stars attack 1.14 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.97

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + Bright Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bright Stars scores more
66%
level
21%
Mbale Heroes scores more
13%

Bright Stars at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bright Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bright Stars vs Mbale Heroes

Bright Stars beat Mbale Heroes 5-1 in Premier League on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Kavumba Recreation Center in Wakiso.