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Mbabane Swallows vs Malanti Chiefs — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malanti Chiefs
Malanti Chiefs
12/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mbabane Swallows61%
×Draw23%
Malanti Chiefs16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.76
Malanti Chiefs
0.78

Mbabane Swallows creates 126% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Malanti Chiefs
0.85

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Malanti Chiefs
1.78

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Malanti Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
84%
Mbabane Swallows or Malanti Chiefs
77%
Draw or Malanti Chiefs
39%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
35%
Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
83%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
52%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
26%
Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals
54%
Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals
18%
Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
79%
Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Malanti Chiefs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.76

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.85 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
61%
level
23%
Malanti Chiefs scores more
16%

Mbabane Swallows at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbabane Swallows 2–0 Malanti Chiefs

Mbabane Swallows beat Malanti Chiefs 2-0 in Premier League on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.