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Malanti Chiefs vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Malanti Chiefs
Malanti Chiefs
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
4/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Malanti Chiefs21%
×Draw27%
Mbabane Swallows51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malanti Chiefs
0.79
Mbabane Swallows
1.40

Mbabane Swallows creates 77% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 83 away

creates per match

Malanti Chiefs
0.77
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Malanti Chiefs
1.42
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malanti Chiefs ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malanti Chiefs or draw
49%
Malanti Chiefs or Mbabane Swallows
73%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
79%

Winning margin

Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+
6%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals
55%
Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals
19%
Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals
5%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
75%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
41%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)
29%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malanti Chiefs at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.77 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Malanti Chiefs scores more
21%
level
27%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
51%

Mbabane Swallows at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malanti Chiefs vs Mbabane Swallows

Mbabane Swallows beat Malanti Chiefs 4-0 in Premier League on April 19, 2022.

The match was played at Killarney Sports Field in Piggs Peak.