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Mbabane Swallows vs Denver — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Denver
Denver
11/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mbabane Swallows53%
×Draw27%
Denver20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.44
Denver
0.78

Mbabane Swallows creates 85% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Denver
0.85

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Denver
1.15

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
80%
Mbabane Swallows or Denver
73%
Draw or Denver
47%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
26%
Denver wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
76%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
42%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
18%
Denver 1+ goals
54%
Denver 2+ goals
18%
Denver 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
72%
Denver (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Denver away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Denver defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Denver attack 0.85 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
53%
level
27%
Denver scores more
20%

Mbabane Swallows at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbabane Swallows vs Denver

Mbabane Swallows beat Denver 1-0 in Premier League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.