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Denver vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Denver
Denver
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
1/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Denver25%
×Draw28%
Mbabane Swallows47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denver
0.88
Mbabane Swallows
1.32

Mbabane Swallows creates 50% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 83 away

creates per match

Denver
0.95
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Denver
1.27
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Denver+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denver ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Denver or draw
53%
Denver or Mbabane Swallows
72%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
75%

Winning margin

Denver wins by 2+
8%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Denver 1+ goals
59%
Denver 2+ goals
22%
Denver 3+ goals
6%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
73%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
38%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Denver (draw refunded)
35%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denver at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denver attack 0.95 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Denver defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Denver scores more
25%
level
28%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
47%

Mbabane Swallows at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denver vs Mbabane Swallows

Denver and Mbabane Swallows drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.