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Maziya vs ATK Mohun Bagan — AFC Cup 2018

Maziya
Maziya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
12/11/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6National Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Maziya36%
×Draw21%
ATK Mohun Bagan43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maziya
1.93
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.13

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Maziya
1.56
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.14

allows per match

Maziya
2.11
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.29

finishing

Maziya+0.00on par
ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maziya ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Maziya or draw
57%
Maziya or ATK Mohun Bagan
79%
Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan
64%

Winning margin

Maziya wins by 2+
19%
ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Maziya 1+ goals
85%
Maziya 2+ goals
57%
Maziya 3+ goals
30%
ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
88%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
63%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Maziya (draw refunded)
45%
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maziya at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maziya attack 1.56 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.93

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Maziya defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maziya scores more
36%
level
21%
ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
43%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Maziya 1–0 ATK Mohun Bagan

Maziya beat ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 in AFC Cup on December 11, 2023.

The match was played at National Football Stadium in Malé, North Malé Atoll, Kaafu Atoll.