ATK Mohun Bagan 2–1 Maziya: Result & Stats

ATK Mohun Bagan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Maziya

J. Cummings 90+2', 28'

T. Wada 45'

10/2/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan64%

×Draw19%

Maziya17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATK Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchMaziya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.11

ATK Mohun Bagan

2.29

Maziya

1.11

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 106% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

2.15

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

2.15

Maziya

1.00

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.23

Maziya

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Maziya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Maziya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw

83%

ATK Mohun Bagan or Maziya

81%

Draw or Maziya

36%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

41%

Maziya wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

90%

ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

66%

ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

40%

Maziya 1+ goals

67%

Maziya 2+ goals

30%

Maziya 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

79%

Maziya (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Maziya away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.15 + Maziya defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.29

Maziya attack 1.00 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more

64%

level

19%

Maziya scores more

17%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

J. Cummings

ATK Mohun Bagan · F

8.6

Match Events

28'

J. Cummings↳ H. Boumous

45'

T. Wada↳ R. Obeng

52'

M. Singh← A. Rai

55'

Ali Fasir← Hassan Raif

60'

Hector Yuste

62'

Mohamed Irufaan← T. Wada

63'

Hassan Nazeem← Hamza Mohamed

64'

S. Bose← A. Ali

64'

S. Abdul Samad← D. Petratos

75'

Brendan Hamill

76'

A. Thapa← G. Martins

82'

Haisham Hassan← Naiz Hassan

90+6'

Sahal Abdul Samad

90+7'

Ibrahim Aisham

90+1'

Hassan Nazeem

90+2'

J. Cummings↳ S. Abdul Samad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ATKMaziya

Overview

66%Possession34%

20Total Shots6

19Corners2

15Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots6

9On Target1

6Off Target3

5Blocked2

13Inside Box2

7Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

514Total Passes268

437Accurate Passes186

85%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1