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Mazatlán vs Club America — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Club America
Club America
11/2/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio El Encanto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán32%
×Draw25%
Club America43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.25
Club America
1.50

Club America creates 20% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 164 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
Club America
1.54

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
Club America
1.14

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Club America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
57%
Mazatlán or Club America
75%
Draw or Club America
68%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
13%
Club America wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
71%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
36%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
13%
Club America 1+ goals
78%
Club America 2+ goals
44%
Club America 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
42%
Club America (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Club America away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.14 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Club America defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Club America attack 1.54 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mazatlán scores more
32%
level
25%
Club America scores more
43%

Club America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazatlán vs Club America

Club America beat Mazatlán 5-0 in Liga MX on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Encanto in Mazatlán.