Club America 5–0 Mazatlán: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Club America

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mazatlán

4/19/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Club America61%

×Draw22%

Mazatlán17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.89

Club America

1.88

Mazatlán

0.89

Club America creates 111% more chances

Season form · 162 home / 103 away

1.89

creates per match

0.89

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Club America

1.89

Mazatlán

0.89

allows per match

Club America

0.89

Mazatlán

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club America+0.00on par

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Club America or draw

83%

Club America or Mazatlán

78%

Draw or Mazatlán

39%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

36%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

85%

Club America 2+ goals

56%

Club America 3+ goals

29%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

59%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

22%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

78%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 162 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.88

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Club America scores more

61%

level

22%

Mazatlán scores more

17%

Club America at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff