Mazatlán 1–2 Club America: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Mazatlán

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Club America

L. Amarilla 39'

I. Lichnovsky 76'

D. Valdés 54'

10/7/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio El Encanto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán31%

×Draw25%

Club America43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MazatlánExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.51

Mazatlán

1.25

Club America

1.51

Club America creates 21% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 163 away

1.37

creates per match

1.55

1.47

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mazatlán

1.37

Club America

1.55

allows per match

Mazatlán

1.47

Club America

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw

57%

Mazatlán or Club America

75%

Draw or Club America

69%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+

13%

Club America wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals

71%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

36%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

13%

Club America 1+ goals

78%

Club America 2+ goals

44%

Club America 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

42%

Club America (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Club America away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Club America defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Club America attack 1.55 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mazatlán scores more

31%

level

25%

Club America scores more

43%

Club America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

H. González

Mazatlán · G

8.2

Match Events

4'

20'

21'

24'

33'

39'

L. Amarilla↳ Y. Bárcenas

42'

Luis Amarilla

49'

Sebastián Cáceres

54'

D. Valdés↳ Á. Zendejas

60'

J. dos Santos← S. Naveda

60'

K. Álvarez← E. Lara

60'

H. Martín← D. Valdés

65'

J. Esquivel← J. Colmán

65'

R. Árciga← L. Amarilla

68'

J. Rodríguez← J. Quiñones

72'

E. Bello← Y. Bárcenas

72'

J. Díaz← F. Venegas

76'

I. Lichnovsky↳ R. Sánchez

79'

Jonathan Rodríguez

79'

O. Moreno← J. Madueña

86'

L. Suárez← Á. Zendejas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MazatlánClub

Overview

39%Possession61%

5Total Shots17

1Corners9

14Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots17

2On Target8

0Off Target5

3Blocked4

2Inside Box12

3Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

384Total Passes596

300Accurate Passes531

78%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls5

5Yellow Cards3