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Mazatlán vs Atletico San Luis — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
10/4/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio El Encanto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán43%
×Draw25%
Atletico San Luis33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.55
Atletico San Luis
1.33

Mazatlán creates 17% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 124 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
Atletico San Luis
1.19

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
Atletico San Luis
1.73

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Atletico San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
67%
Mazatlán or Atletico San Luis
75%
Draw or Atletico San Luis
57%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
21%
Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
79%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
46%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
20%
Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
74%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
38%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
57%
Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mazatlán scores more
43%
level
25%
Atletico San Luis scores more
33%

Mazatlán at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazatlán vs Atletico San Luis

Mazatlán beat Atletico San Luis 2-1 in Liga MX on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Encanto in Mazatlán.