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Atletico San Luis vs Mazatlán — Liga MX 2026

Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mazatlán
Mazatlán
4/6/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Atletico San Luis47%
×Draw25%
Mazatlán28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico San Luis
1.61
Mazatlán
1.20

Atletico San Luis creates 34% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 103 away

creates per match

Atletico San Luis
1.36
Mazatlán
0.89

allows per match

Atletico San Luis
1.50
Mazatlán
1.86

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par
Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Mazatlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw
72%
Atletico San Luis or Mazatlán
75%
Draw or Mazatlán
53%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
24%
Mazatlán wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
80%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
48%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
22%
Mazatlán 1+ goals
70%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
34%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
62%
Mazatlán (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.50 · 124 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.36 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more
47%
level
25%
Mazatlán scores more
28%

Atletico San Luis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Atletico San Luis 2–1 Mazatlán

Atletico San Luis beat Mazatlán 2-1 in Liga MX on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez in San Luis Potosí.