Mazatlán 3–2 Atlas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Mazatlán

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Atlas

3/29/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio El Encanto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán42%

×Draw25%

Atlas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MazatlánExpected goals in this matchAtlas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.27

Mazatlán

1.47

Atlas

1.27

Mazatlán creates 16% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 146 away

1.37

creates per match

1.07

1.47

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Mazatlán

1.37

Atlas

1.07

allows per match

Mazatlán

1.47

Atlas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Atlas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw

67%

Mazatlán or Atlas

75%

Draw or Atlas

58%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+

20%

Atlas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals

77%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

43%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

18%

Atlas 1+ goals

72%

Atlas 2+ goals

36%

Atlas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

56%

Atlas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Atlas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Atlas attack 1.07 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mazatlán scores more

42%

level

25%

Atlas scores more

33%

Mazatlán at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff