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Atlas vs Mazatlán — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mazatlán
Mazatlán
1/31/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Atlas48%
×Draw26%
Mazatlán26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.49
Mazatlán
1.04

Atlas creates 43% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 103 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.12
Mazatlán
0.89

allows per match

Atlas
1.19
Mazatlán
1.86

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Mazatlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
74%
Atlas or Mazatlán
74%
Draw or Mazatlán
52%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
24%
Mazatlán wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
77%
Atlas 2+ goals
44%
Atlas 3+ goals
19%
Mazatlán 1+ goals
65%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
28%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
64%
Mazatlán (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlas scores more
48%
level
26%
Mazatlán scores more
26%

Atlas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Atlas 1–0 Mazatlán

Atlas beat Mazatlán 1-0 in Liga MX on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.