Mazarrón FC vs Lorca FC: Preview & Prediction

Mazarrón FC

CANC

00:00

Lorca FC

3/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mazarrón FC40%

×Draw29%

Lorca FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mazarrón FCExpected goals in this matchLorca FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.98

Mazarrón FC

1.17

Lorca FC

0.98

Mazarrón FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.02

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Mazarrón FC

1.33

Lorca FC

0.93

allows per match

Mazarrón FC

1.02

Lorca FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Lorca FC →

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw

69%

Mazarrón FC or Lorca FC

71%

Draw or Lorca FC

60%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

17%

Lorca FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

69%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

33%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

11%

Lorca FC 1+ goals

62%

Lorca FC 2+ goals

26%

Lorca FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

57%

Lorca FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more

40%

level

29%

Lorca FC scores more

31%

Mazarrón FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mazarrón FC host Lorca FC

March 15, 2020: Mazarrón FC take on Lorca FC in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mazarrón FC host Lorca FC at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Mazarrón FC vs Lorca FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Mazarrón FC host Lorca FC