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Lorca FC vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
10/26/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC47%
×Draw26%
Mazarrón FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.52
Mazarrón FC
1.10

Lorca FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 63 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
73%
Lorca FC or Mazarrón FC
74%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
53%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
24%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
78%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
45%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
20%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
67%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
30%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
63%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lorca FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Mazarrón FC scores more
27%

Lorca FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca FC vs Mazarrón FC

Mazarrón FC beat Lorca FC 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.