Mazarrón FC 2–0 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Mazarrón FC

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

F. Osterwalder 85'

Salvador Ardil 49'

3/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mazarrón FC47%

×Draw27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mazarrón FCExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.94

Mazarrón FC

1.39

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.94

Mazarrón FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 78 away

1.33

creates per match

0.85

1.02

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Mazarrón FC

1.33

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Mazarrón FC

1.02

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw

75%

Mazarrón FC or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

73%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

53%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

75%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

40%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

16%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

61%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

65%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more

47%

level

27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

25%

Mazarrón FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Salvador Ardil

55'

N. Kwaku← Morales

55'

José Mariano← Álex García

70'

F. Osterwalder← Francisco Matallana

70'

Javi Vera← Miguel Ortuño

74'

Mario Santiago← David

74'

J. Díaz← Peque

85'

Alvaro Esquinas← Javier Muñoz

85'

F. Osterwalder

88'

Alejandro Hernández← Salvador Ardil

88'

Salva Ballesta← Diego

89'

Jaime Vera← Omar Saura

Mazarrón

CAP

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ardil

Manager: Roberto Lucas

70'▲F. Osterwalder←▼Francisco Matallana

70'▲Javi Vera←▼Miguel Ortuño

88'▲Alejandro Hernández←▼Salvador Ardil

88'▲Salva Ballesta←▼Diego

89'▲Jaime Vera←▼Omar Saura

Mazarrón FC substitutes

OsterwalderVeraHernándezBallestaVera

Manager: Juan López

55'▲N. Kwaku←▼Morales

55'▲José Mariano←▼Álex García

74'▲Mario Santiago←▼David

74'▲J. Díaz←▼Peque

85'▲Alvaro Esquinas←▼Javier Muñoz

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

KwakuMarianoSantiagoDíazEsquinas

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Mazarrón FC beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 21, 2021.

Goals: Salvador Ardil (49'), F. Osterwalder (85').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.

Mazarrón FC vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia