CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–1 Mazarrón FC

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mazarrón FC

Carlos Ventura 28'

3/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia37%

×Draw28%

Mazarrón FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchMazarrón FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.13

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.18

Mazarrón FC

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 63 away

1.03

creates per match

1.21

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Mazarrón FC

1.21

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Mazarrón FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Mazarrón FC →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

65%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Mazarrón FC

72%

Draw or Mazarrón FC

63%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

16%

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

69%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

33%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

12%

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

68%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

31%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

52%

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

37%

level

28%

Mazarrón FC scores more

35%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Carlos Ventura

34'

Diego Cárceles← Juan Villa

46'

Alejandro Molina← Alberto Martínez

67'

Miguel← Matías

69'

K. Wolosso← Juan Castelló

85'

Iván Pérez← Mario

85'

Alejandro Pérez← Samuel Martínez

89'

Adrián Silva← Salvador Ardil

CAP

Mazarrón

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

34'▲Diego Cárceles←▼Juan Villa

46'▲Alejandro Molina←▼Alberto Martínez

67'▲Miguel←▼Matías

85'▲Iván Pérez←▼Mario

85'▲Alejandro Pérez←▼Samuel Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

CárcelesMolinaMiguelPérezPérez

Manager: David Martinez

69'▲K. Wolosso←▼Juan Castelló

89'▲Adrián Silva←▼Salvador Ardil

Mazarrón FC substitutes

WolossoSilva