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Mauritania vs Mali — Friendlies 2026

Mauritania
Mauritania
FT
1 – 0
Mali
Mali
8/15/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mauritania55%
×Draw31%
Mali15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauritania
1.22
Mali
0.48

Mauritania creates 154% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mauritania
1.38
Mali
0.50

allows per match

Mauritania
0.46
Mali
1.06

finishing

Mauritania+0.00on par
Mali+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauritania ↓

Mali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mauritania or draw
85%
Mauritania or Mali
69%
Draw or Mali
45%

Winning margin

Mauritania wins by 2+
25%
Mali wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mauritania 1+ goals
70%
Mauritania 2+ goals
34%
Mauritania 3+ goals
12%
Mali 1+ goals
38%
Mali 2+ goals
8%
Mali 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mauritania (draw refunded)
79%
Mali (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauritania at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Mali away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauritania attack 1.38 + Mali defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mali attack 0.50 + Mauritania defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mauritania scores more
55%
level
31%
Mali scores more
15%

Mauritania at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mauritania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Mauritania 1–0 Mali

Mauritania beat Mali 1-0 in Friendlies on August 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.