Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mali vs Mauritania — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Mali
Mali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mauritania
Mauritania
1/20/2022Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade Omnisport de Douala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mali71%
×Draw20%
Mauritania9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali
1.86
Mauritania
0.49

Mali creates 280% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mali
1.60
Mauritania
0.38

allows per match

Mali
0.60
Mauritania
2.13

finishing

Mali+0.00on par
Mauritania+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

Mauritania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mali or draw
91%
Mali or Mauritania
80%
Draw or Mauritania
29%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+
43%
Mauritania wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals
84%
Mali 2+ goals
55%
Mali 3+ goals
28%
Mauritania 1+ goals
39%
Mauritania 2+ goals
9%
Mauritania 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)
89%
Mauritania (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Mauritania away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 1.60 + Mauritania defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Mauritania attack 0.38 + Mali defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Mali scores more
71%
level
20%
Mauritania scores more
9%

Mali at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Mali 2–0 Mauritania

Mali beat Mauritania 2-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport de Douala in Douala.