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Mauritania vs Burkina Faso — Friendlies 2026

Mauritania
Mauritania
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
12/30/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mauritania53%
×Draw28%
Burkina Faso19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauritania
1.36
Burkina Faso
0.68

Mauritania creates 100% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mauritania
1.38
Burkina Faso
0.90

allows per match

Mauritania
0.46
Burkina Faso
1.35

finishing

Mauritania+0.00on par
Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauritania ↓

Burkina Faso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mauritania or draw
81%
Mauritania or Burkina Faso
72%
Draw or Burkina Faso
47%

Winning margin

Mauritania wins by 2+
26%
Burkina Faso wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mauritania 1+ goals
74%
Mauritania 2+ goals
39%
Mauritania 3+ goals
16%
Burkina Faso 1+ goals
49%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
15%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mauritania (draw refunded)
74%
Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauritania at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauritania attack 1.38 + Burkina Faso defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Burkina Faso attack 0.90 + Mauritania defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mauritania scores more
53%
level
28%
Burkina Faso scores more
19%

Mauritania at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mauritania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Mauritania 0–0 Burkina Faso

Mauritania and Burkina Faso drew 0-0 in Friendlies on December 30, 2021.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.