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Burkina Faso vs Mauritania — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mauritania
Mauritania
3/22/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 7Stade du 4 Août (Ouagadougou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Burkina Faso70%
×Draw20%
Mauritania10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burkina Faso
1.90
Mauritania
0.53

Burkina Faso creates 258% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Burkina Faso
1.67
Mauritania
0.38

allows per match

Burkina Faso
0.67
Mauritania
2.13

finishing

Burkina Faso+0.00on par
Mauritania+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burkina Faso ↓

Mauritania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burkina Faso or draw
90%
Burkina Faso or Mauritania
80%
Draw or Mauritania
30%

Winning margin

Burkina Faso wins by 2+
43%
Mauritania wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Burkina Faso 1+ goals
85%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
56%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
29%
Mauritania 1+ goals
41%
Mauritania 2+ goals
10%
Mauritania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
88%
Mauritania (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burkina Faso at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Mauritania away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burkina Faso attack 1.67 + Mauritania defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mauritania attack 0.38 + Burkina Faso defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Burkina Faso scores more
70%
level
20%
Mauritania scores more
10%

Burkina Faso at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Burkina Faso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Burkina Faso 1–0 Mauritania

Burkina Faso beat Mauritania 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on March 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 4 Août (Ouagadougou).